from Center for Preventive Action

Fragility, Instability, and the Failure of States

Assessing Sources of Systemic Risk

October 28, 2008

Download PDF
Report

More on:

Conflict Prevention

Overview

This Center for Preventive Action Working Paper surveys existing approaches to assessing state fragility and failure within the context of development, conflict, and governance. It examines the risk factors that have been identified through systematic inquiry and research with the goal of improving the prospects for successful conflict prevention and management, and argues that the goal of "early warning" relating to state fragility and failure should be more to inform and temper our expectations for policy response than to trigger costly and risky interventions.

Monty G. Marshall

Download the appendix for this report [PDF].

More on:

Conflict Prevention

Explore More on Conflict Prevention

United Kingdom

Moving Past the Troubles: The Future of Northern Ireland Peace
The Good Friday Agreement has dampened sectarian conflict and brought stability to Northern Ireland, but the peace deal has been challenged by Brexit-related border tensions that have thrown the region’s hard-won gains into doubt.

Backgrounder by Charles Landow and James McBride February 16, 2024

Nigeria

Nigeria Security Tracker
The Council on Foreign Relations' Nigeria Security Tracker was an effort to catalog and map political violence based on a weekly survey of Nigerian and international press. The last update to the tracker was July 1, 2023. The data presented included violent incidents related to political, economic, and social grievances directed at the state or other affiliated groups (or, conversely, the state employing violence to respond to those incidents.)

Tracker by Michelle Gavin July 1, 2023 Africa Program

Afghanistan

What to Know About the Afghan Peace Negotiations
The Center for Preventive Action has compiled an accessible overview of the Afghan peace negotiations, including the U.S.-Taliban agreement, the U.S.-Afghan government joint declaration, and the ongoing intra-Afghan process.

Article by Center for Preventive Action September 11, 2020 Center for Preventive Action

Top Stories on CFR

China

Virtual Media Briefing: U.S. Tariffs on Chinese Imports

Play
CFR experts discuss President Joe Biden’s decision to increase tariffs on various Chinese imports and the implications for the U.S. economy and U.S.-China relations. 

Virtual Event with Zongyuan Zoe Liu, Brad W. Setser and Matthew P. Goodman May 16, 2024 Media Briefings

Myanmar

Will 2024 Be the Junta’s End in Myanmar?
Myanmar’s civil war between resistance groups and the ruling military junta has reached a decisive phase.

Blog Post by Joshua Kurlantzick May 15, 2024 Asia Unbound

Taiwan

Taiwan’s Democracy Is Thriving in China’s Shadow
Despite China’s growing pressure, Taiwan has developed one of the world’s strongest democracies—one that will be increasingly tested in the coming years. 

Blog Post by David Sacks May 13, 2024 Asia Unbound