Vietnamese Politics Tries to Pretend its Placid—But It’s Not

A one-party, opaque, and authoritarian state, Vietnam’s leaders usually try to present themselves, and their whole party apparatus, as working closely together, free of discord and united on all fronts. They try to manage political change slowly and in an orderly manner, and historically, transitions have been laid out well in advance. In early 2023, then-Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc made a speech on the occasion of Xuan Que Huong, an event for overseas Vietnamese that also coincides with Tet, the Lunar New Year. He announced: “Amidst great difficulties, the year 2022 also witnessed the joint efforts and the will of the Vietnamese people under the leadership of the Party and State. We have strongly brought to full play our endogenous strength in tandem with making good use of international resources, risen through difficulties and challenges, seized opportunities, and obtained major achievements.”

The reality is now far different: behind the opaque façade, Vietnam’s leadership is apparently both corrupt and intensely fractious, now a far cry from the orderly, slow-moving, and heavily planned Communist Party it was in the past. It now also has concentrated an immense amount of power in the hands of one man, party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, rather than splitting it among four or five top leaders as it had in the past, creating more of a consensus-type authoritarianism akin to China in the Hu Jintao or Jiang Zemin era. Nguyen is eighty-years-old and in visibly poor health, with no clear succession plan. For more on Vietnam’s increasingly chaotic politics and its impact on the country’s economy, people, and foreign relations, read my new World Politics Review article.